The macroeconomic analysis of corporate bond markets typically is based on aggregate measures of growth, employment, interest rates and monetary policy. The impact of changes of these variables on corporate revenues and cash flows and thus on credit risk depends on financial and operating leverage and on the ratio of earnings or cash flows to [...]
In determining if quantitative approaches may add value, and which model is best suited, both investment horizon and performance targets as well as credit-specific characteristics should be considered. We would distinguish those investors who are concerned with mark-to-market fluctuations from those who are focused on absolute return to maturity. The latter may find the long-term [...]
The third and last type of quantitative credit models that we want to mention briefly are factor models. In contrast to both the structural and reduced-form models, the factor model does not attempt to model default. Rather, linear regression is used to assess the relative richness or cheapness of individual credits. The factor model attributes [...]